Counterfactual Thinking in a Competitive Academic Environment

by Sabrina Guardino | Thursday, Apr 03, 2025

 

Think back to the most recent exam you have taken. I am confident that immediately after completing it, you began to rethink the questions you may have answered incorrectly. You likely felt a sense of dread, envisioning how many points your grade was certain to drop when your professor entered your unsatisfactory grade into Canvas.

This process of imagining alternative outcomes that could have potentially occurred and considering what you should have done instead is referred to as counterfactual thinking. I am certainly a victim of this phenomenon. I have lost track of just how many times I have criticized myself for how I answered specific test questions. It sometimes seems as though the moment I leave the testing room, the answers suddenly come to me, and I begin to feel a sense of regret. Oftentimes, this feeling is all for nothing, and my test score is nowhere near as poor as I convinced myself it would be. Other times, the score is quite unsatisfactory, and the feelings of regret seem appropriate. However, this is typically followed by a sense of determination- how can I, next time, do better?

The feelings that counterfactual thinking elicit can be both advantageous and destructive. It is easy to dwell on your own mistakes. In a competitive academic environment, such as the Harriet L. Wilkes Honors College, you may feel less capable than the students surrounding you. Everyone seems to have everything figured out; they have established goals, various accomplishments, and a precise pathway to their desired career. Taking notice of this, you may compare yourself to them and feel your self-esteem begin to decline. As you look back on your past, you may wish you had taken a similar path to them. Perhaps, had you chosen their major or

studied using the same strategies as them, your grades would not have suffered. This form of counterfactual thinking can take a negative toll on your self-esteem, and may even impact your self-concept- the various beliefs you hold about yourself and your identity.

At the Honors College, people tend to place significant value on their academic careers. The concept of bottom-up self-esteem asserts that failures in the aspects of your life that are most important to you will impact your self-esteem more than in those that are less important to you. When someone values their academics, a disappointing grade is certain to weigh on them.

Perfectionism–in which a person strives to flawlessly achieve unrealistically high goals–is frequently associated with counterfactual thinking (Sirois et al., 2010). This is common within the Honors College. When a perfectionist engages in counterfactual thinking, they are more likely to experience excessive worry, anxiety, and depression (Sirois et al., 2010). In this way, counterfactual thinking can be harmful, as it may lead people to dwell on their mistakes and view themselves as incapable. It is important to remember that, though you may make mistakes, it is possible to utilize counterfactual thinking as a means of improving yourself.

When you engage in upward social comparison by comparing yourself to individuals you view as better than you at something, you may begin to feel determined to improve yourself. By reflecting on your past mistakes, you can conjure ideas on how not to repeat them. Nasco and Marsh (1999) concluded that in an academic setting, counterfactual thinking is associated with improved exam performance. When someone reflects on mistakes they made while testing, they attempt to control their actions and environment more, helping them rectify their past errors (Nasco & Marsh, 1999). When you score poorly on a test and engage in counterfactual thinking, you can adopt new study skills that will help you perform better next time. Perhaps, by exposing

yourself to external points of view and engaging in counterfactual thinking, you can diversify your views and improve upon your previous mistakes.

So, next time you exit an exam room feeling doubtful of yourself, try to remember that reflecting on your mistakes is not necessarily a harmful activity to engage in. Of course, you should avoid dwelling on your errors, but engaging in positive counterfactual thinking will help you refrain from repeating past errors. If you learn where you went wrong, you can make better decisions and attempt new strategies next time. This is certain to help you utilize counterfactual thinking in a way that helps you learn how not to repeat the same mistakes, rather than ruminating on your misfortunes.

 

 

References

Nasco, S. A., & Marsh, K. L. (1999). Gaining control through counterfactual thinking.

Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25(5), 556–568.

https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167299025005002

Sirois, F. M., Monforton, J., & Simpson, M. (2010). “If only I had done better”: Perfectionism

and the functionality of counterfactual thinking. Personality and Social Psychology

Bulletin, 36(12), 1675–1692. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167210387614