Stormy Weather? Experts Share Outlook on Remainder of 2026 Atlantic Storm Season

To date, this year’s activity in the Atlantic Ocean has been relatively quiet.  Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) – home to one of the world’s most trusted forecasting programs – updated their seasonal forecast in early August. NOAA predicts a 75% chance of below-normal season activities, and CSU projects that there will be seven named storms and four hurricanes throughout the remainder of the 2026 hurricane season.

El Niño is the primary factor behind the below-average forecast, according to Assistant Professor of Geosciences Yijie Zhu, Ph.D., in the Charles E. Schmidt College of Science. This climate pattern is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific.

“When we have ongoing El Niño conditions, stronger than normal wind shear often develops in the main North Atlantic hurricane development region,” explained Zhu. “High wind shear can tilt and disrupt the storm’s structure, making hurricanes more difficult to form and intensify.”

With above-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, hurricane experts believe that El Niño conditions will likely remain strong. Nevertheless, South Floridians should remain vigilant.

“Severe weather can generate and develop very quickly in Florida,” noted Zhu. “Even an afternoon thunderstorm can bring locally heavy rainfall and lightning with very little warning.”

While hurricanes usually come with a longer lead time, that does not mean areas away from the landfall point are necessarily safe. Zhu recalled that in 2024, Hurricane Milton made landfall on the west coast of Florida, but it also spawned numerous tornado outbreaks in South Florida.

“A hurricane’s impacts can extend far beyond where the center makes landfall, so local residents should stay prepared throughout the entirety of the hurricane season,” stated Zhu. “Plus, it only takes one major hurricane making landfall to turn a ‘quiet season’ into a devastating one.”

In July, Zhu and his team were awarded the WLW-ECOS Interdisciplinary Research Award for their project, “Integrated Solutions for Hurricane Flooding and Seawater Intrusion in Southeast Florida.” The researchers hope to improve how Southeast Florida prepares for hurricane-related flooding and seawater intrusion, especially as sea levels rise and continued urban development increases the region’s vulnerability. Rather than looking at hurricane flooding, groundwater, urban growth and observations separately, this project brings them together into one integrated approach.

“Hurricane impact is not a standalone subject,” expressed Zhu. “The amount of rainfall and the storm surge height only define the physical input, but the actual impact depends on where people live, how the land is developed, how water moves, as well as how communities can respond. The goal is to better understand not just where the hazard may occur, but where it may create the greatest risk for communities.”

The WLW-ECOS Interdisciplinary Research Award generously provided $80,000 toward the group’s 18-month project, with $15,000 dedicated to supporting two undergraduate researchers.

“This interdisciplinary research project provides an important starting point for our team to develop preliminary findings and demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach,” said Zhu. “These initial results can then support future external grant proposals and larger research funding opportunities focused on hurricane resilience, flooding, seawater intrusion and coastal communities.”

The project team includes Associate Professor Weibo Liu, Ph.D., who will lead the urbanization and future land-use component, and Assistant Professor Xiaolang Zhang, Ph.D., who will lead the seawater intrusion and groundwater modeling component, both in the college’s Department of Geosciences. Minghan Wei, Ph.D., an assistant professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, FAU College of Engineering and Computer Science, will lead the development of autonomous robotic monitoring algorithms to collect environmental data during and after extreme weather events. The project also plans to sponsor two undergraduate researchers.