Logistics Rebound in January Amid Uneven Economic Pressures
The logistics industry rebounded in January, marking its fastest expansion in seven months, underscoring early signs of diverging economic outcomes across sectors and ongoing economic restructuring.
The logistics industry rebounded in January, marking its fastest expansion in seven months, underscoring early signs of diverging economic outcomes across sectors and ongoing economic restructuring.
The Logistics Managers’ Index rose to 59.6 in January, up from 54.2 in December 2025, largely driven by mild restocking and rising inventory costs. Any score above 50 indicates the industry is expanding; a score below 50 suggests contraction.
Inventory levels rebounded sharply from 35.1 to 53.9 due to firms restocking, while inventory costs jumped to 71.3, signaling strong expansion and persistent cost pressures. Meanwhile, warehousing capacity fell to 50, indicating tightening space and warehousing utilization rose to 54.4, showing increasing demand for storage.
January’s transportation metrics showed the growing divide between larger companies and smaller firms. Larger companies reported transportation capacity at 41.5, a deep contraction while small companies reported 52.5.
“Demand for warehousing persists as inventory costs and levels rise furthering the likely "k-shaped" macroeconomic dynamic of higher income earners continuing to drive larger shares of U.S. consumption,” said Steven Carnovale, Ph.D., associate professor of supply chain management in FAU’s College of Business.
The logistics industry often serves as an early indicator of shifts in the broader economy. When supply chains slow down due to port congestion, inventory shortages or transportation delays, it can signal economic stress before it appears in traditional metrics. The reverse is also true: as the economy recovers, logistics activity tends to rebound first, reflecting renewed demand and movement of goods.
The LMI, a survey of director-level and above supply chain executives, measures the expansion or contraction of the logistics industry using eight unique components: inventory levels, inventory costs, warehousing capacity, warehousing utilization, warehousing prices, transportation capacity, transportation utilization and transportation prices.
Researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, along with FAU, calculated the LMI using a diffusion index to offer a dynamic view of the U.S. supply chain, anticipating economic shifts and trends.
Even as inflation cools, consumers and businesses still face rising costs as inventory costs highlight how expensive restocking is, transportation prices underscore tighter capacity, and rising warehousing prices suggest demand is up, while available space is down.
“As the transportation market shifts its balance of power back to the carriers, cost pressures will continue to rise for those shipping goods and likely move forward down the supply chain, particularly as demand remains persistent,” Carnovale said.
Together, these shifts point to deeper changes in how companies operate, invest and staff their organizations.
-FAU-
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