Trump Leads in Florida as Clinton Trails in GOP Matchups

Donald Trump has doubled the vote of his nearest challenger in Florida, where Hillary Clinton trails in matchups with GOP frontrunners, according to a poll by the FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative.

Donald Trump leads the GOP field with 36 percent, followed by Marco Rubio at 18 percent, Ben Carson at 15 percent and Ted Cruz at 10 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush placed fifth with just 8.9 percent, down more than two points from BEPI’s poll in September when he took 11.3 percent of the vote in Florida.


By james-hellegaard | 11/18/2015

Donald Trump has doubled the vote of his nearest challenger in Florida, where Hillary Clinton trails in matchups with several GOP frontrunners, according to a new poll by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative (FAU BEPI).

The survey was conducted in Florida from Nov. 15-16, immediately after the latest Democratic debate.

Trump leads the GOP field with 36 percent, followed by Marco Rubio at 18 percent, Ben Carson at 15 percent and Ted Cruz at 10 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush placed fifth with just 8.9 percent, down more than two points from BEPI’s poll in September when he took 11.3 percent of the vote in Florida.

“Despite conjecture that Donald Trump has plateaued, his support in Florida remains very strong and could be growing,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative.  

While Clinton holds a 43-point lead (65.5 percent to 22.4 percent) over Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side, she continues to trail in head-to-head matchups with the GOP frontrunners, with Carson holding the biggest margin at 9.7 points (50.2 percent to 40.5 percent). Trump leads Clinton by 8.7 points in Florida (49.2 percent to 40.5 percent).

“While Clinton is losing in all the trial heats, she is winning among females,” said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of the BEPI. “Thus it appears that her strategy of targeting women is working.”

The GOP primary fight has not had a positive impact on favorability ratings for many of the candidates. Trump has a favorable rating of just 41 percent among all voters, while 51 percent have an unfavorable impression of him. His numbers are more positive among likely GOP voters, however, with 63 percent favorable compared to 32 percent unfavorable.

Clinton also suffers from negative name recognition, with voters giving her a 41 percent favorable rating, compared with 54 percent saying they have an unfavorable impression of her. Among Independent voters, Clinton’s numbers drop to 35 percent favorable and 56 percent unfavorable.

In the race for the U.S. Senate in Florida, U.S. Congressman Patrick Murphy, Democrat, holds a nine-point lead over Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, Republican, (39 percent to 30 percent), while Allen Grayson, Democrat, trails Lopez-Cantera by four points (38 percent to 34 percent). Ron DeSantis, Republican, fares slightly better against Murphy, trailing 38 percent to 36 percent, while he leads Grayson 37 percent to 33 percent.

The polling sample for the Democratic and the Republican primary consisted of 297 and 355 likely Florida voters, respectively, with a margin of error of +/-5.6 percent and +/-5.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The General Election Sample consisted of 829 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-3.3 percent and a 95 percent confidence level.

For more information, contact Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., at 561-297-1312 or BEPI@fau.edu, or visit www.business.fau.edu/bepi

-FAU-

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